Judul : Only 72 Voters Surveyed, Invoke?
link : Only 72 Voters Surveyed, Invoke?
Only 72 Voters Surveyed, Invoke?
Late evening yesterday, I read an article about Invoke's prediction that Pakatan Harapan will form the next Government. The survey was conducted among 11,991 people across 165 Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia. I have a very mathematical brain and it went to work immediately.
If you take a simple average, that means the total number surveyed per Parliamentary seat is just 72 people. Any idea how many 72 people is? That's about the size of 2 classrooms full of students, definitely there are more people in Tesco at any one time.
You can even get 72 people in a Petronas station in about 15-20 minutes, or KFC in less than 5 minutes. I am not sure if asking 72 people about who will they vote for is conclusive that Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional will win that seat.
The smallest seat in Peninsular Malaysia is Putrajaya with 17,627 voters. That's 0.004 percent. Even more comical is when we take the 72 against the largest seat in Peninsular Malaysia - Damansara with 150,439 voters. That's a miniscule 0.0004 percent.
Headlines are kinda easy to write, I have been there and done that. And that is what people read anyway, most of the time. Invoke is telling the entire country that the Opposition will be the Government based on what 72 people say in each seat based on simple average. Is this how Invoke's multi million budget is being spent?
Let us also have a throwback moment today while we are on this. In the 13th General Election, it was reported on 8 March 2013 that Anwar Ibrahim too said the then Pakatan Rakyat would win the elections with at least a 10 seat majority.
What was the result in the end? Pakatan won only 89 seats, not even close to 122 seats that they predicted. Anwar also predicted that the Opposition will helm 6 out of 13 states in Malaysia, while Kit Siang said 7. In the end, the Opposition lost Kedah and Perak. They managed to retain only Selangor, Penang and Kelantan.
After reading these, the next question that we all have in our minds is - Why is the Opposition attempting to lie that they will win the elections? This election is a war that the Opposition has lost since Day 1 of campaigning, with lies after lies thrown by sympathisers and supporters, driving away voters from them.
The voters will punish the Opposition for their lies. The Opposition knows this clearly. To salvage it, the Opposition has to create a psychological bandwagon effect. Theoretically no one wants to be on the losing team, it feels good to be victorious.
It is the same reason why people support teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United and recently Manchester City. It really feels good when we celebrate the win after a match. The Opposition is seeding into the minds of voters that they will emerge victorious in the elections, and use that to tempt fence-sitters to vote for them.
But with 72 respondents per seat, and only Peninsular Malaysia's 165 seats were surveyed, that's a joke fit for Comedy Central Asia. Perhaps it is time for us to remind ourselves that in the last elections, Barisan Nasional won 86 seats in Peninsular Malaysia and another 47 seats in Sabah and Sarawak, a total of 133 seats.
DAP and PKR won only 68 in total. BN also won 5.2 million votes in GE13. Remember this Invoke and Rafizi, numbers don't lie. Only headlines like yours.
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